When is el nino supposed to hit california

On 15 September 2026, meteorological agencies released updated long-range forecasts suggesting that the Pacific Ocean is trending toward an El Niño phase, which could significantly impact California’s weather patterns by the winter of 2026. While current sea surface temperatures remain in a neutral state, climate models show a steady warming trend along the equatorial Pacific, with a high probability of an official El Niño declaration by late October or early November 2026. If this pattern stabilizes, meteorologists anticipate that California could experience a wetter-than-average winter season starting in December 2026. Historically, El Niño events shift the jet stream southward, often directing moisture-laden storms toward the southern and central regions of the state. While this brings the potential for much-needed precipitation to replenish reservoirs and snowpack, officials are already cautioning residents to prepare for the associated risks of heavy rainfall, including potential flooding and mudslides in wildfire-scarred areas. Experts continue to monitor subsurface ocean temperatures to confirm the strength and duration of the developing event, which remains the primary driver for California's upcoming seasonal outlook.